Selasa, 30 April 2019

Alphabet had more than $70 billion in market cap wiped out, and it's blaming YouTube - CNBC

Google has a YouTube problem, according to CFO Ruth Porat.

On Monday, after reporting that ad revenue grew 15% versus the 24% it saw a year ago, Google's parent company Alphabet saw its stock punished. It fell nearly 8% Tuesday morning.

According to Porat, YouTube was one of the culprits.

"While YouTube clicks continue to grow at a substantial pace in the first quarter, the rate of YouTube click growth rate decelerated versus a strong Q1 last year, reflecting changes that we made in early 2018, which we believe are overall additive to the user and advertiser experience," Porat said on the company's earnings call Monday.

Porat didn't expand on precisely what changes in YouTube led to the poor ad revenue growth, and Google isn't saying anything beyond her statements from Monday.

But if you wind the clock back a year, it's easy to see what happened.

In the first quarter of 2018, Google began making changes to YouTube's algorithms designed to stop harmful content from appearing in the feed of recommended videos you see on the side of a video page.

The goal was to make it harder to find videos full of conspiracy theories, fake news and all that other detritus that occasionally sent advertisers fleeing from the platform. Instead of YouTube directing you to a conspiracy theory about the latest school shooting, you were shown related videos from "authoritative" news sources the company considered worthy of bringing you accurate information.

On top of that, YouTube has removed millions of channels and videos that violated the company's harmful content policies, most notably Alex Jones.

But all of those garbage videos also kept engagement high. It kept YouTube users tuned in to their feeds beyond the video they came to watch, even if the company said they only made up less than 1% of all videos on the site.

YouTube was literally incentivized to keep its algorithms pumping junk to the top of people's feeds so people would keep watching and the ad dollars would keep flowing. A devastating Bloomberg report earlier this month showed that for years YouTube executives ignored warnings from their own employees that the misinformation and nastiness on the site had gotten out of hand.

For a long time, they chose the money over managing the mayhem.

Today, YouTube says it's serious about cleaning up the issues that have plagued the site for years. But that clean-up appears to have come at the short-term cost of ad revenue growth. (Although it's possible that Porat was referring to other types of changes, or engaging in some selective disclosure to guide investors away from other reasons for the growth slowdown.)

Investors punished the company on Monday by vaporizing more than $70 billion from its market cap.

But if YouTube can fix its content problems and continue to grow beyond its nearly 2 billion users, it has a chance to benefit in the long term.

The new system is still far from perfect, as The New York Times' Kevin Roose pointed out in an interview with YouTube's Chief Product officer Neal Mohan. It's still possible to fall down a rabbit hole of horrible videos on YouTube. But, based on Porat's comments, the changes were effective enough to hurt YouTube engagement.

Still, analysts on Tuesday didn't sound too worried about YouTube's longer term prospects, and cautioned there are other factors playing into the ad growth deceleration.

"YouTube has increased its focus on responsibility and safety, and it adjusted its algorithm in 1Q to reduce recommendations of content that comes close to violating guidelines or is misinformed or harmful," J.P. Morgan analysts wrote in a research note Tuesday morning. They added that, "we don't think there's a single clear answer for Google's [deceleration], but a number of factors are at work."

With billions in market cap gone and analysts already downgrading Alphabet's stock, the biggest question surrounding YouTube today is whether it will continue making improvements to curb the spread of toxic content or be shocked back into inaction for the benefit of its shareholders.

Correction: An earlier version of this story linked to the wrong YouTube blog post announcing changes to content moderation.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/30/youtube-algorithm-changes-negatively-impact-google-ad-revenue.html

2019-04-30 16:07:21Z
52780278414517

Alphabet had more than $70 billion in market cap wiped out, and it's blaming YouTube - CNBC

Google has a YouTube problem, according to CFO Ruth Porat.

On Monday, after reporting that ad revenue grew 15% versus the 24% it saw a year ago, Google's parent company Alphabet saw its stock punished. It fell nearly 8% Tuesday morning.

According to Porat, YouTube was one of the culprits.

"While YouTube clicks continue to grow at a substantial pace in the first quarter, the rate of YouTube click growth rate decelerated versus a strong Q1 last year, reflecting changes that we made in early 2018, which we believe are overall additive to the user and advertiser experience," Porat said on the company's earnings call Monday.

Porat didn't expand on precisely what changes in YouTube led to the poor ad revenue growth, and Google isn't saying anything beyond her statements from Monday.

But if you wind the clock back a year, it's easy to see what happened.

In the first quarter of 2018, Google began making changes to YouTube's algorithms designed to stop harmful content from appearing in the feed of recommended videos you see on the side of a video page.

The goal was to make it harder to find videos full of conspiracy theories, fake news and all that other detritus that occasionally sent advertisers fleeing from the platform. Instead of YouTube directing you to a conspiracy theory about the latest school shooting, you were shown related videos from "authoritative" news sources the company considered worthy of bringing you accurate information.

On top of that, YouTube has removed millions of channels and videos that violated the company's harmful content policies, most notably Alex Jones.

But all of those garbage videos also kept engagement high. It kept YouTube users tuned in to their feeds beyond the video they came to watch, even if the company said they only made up less than 1% of all videos on the site.

YouTube was literally incentivized to keep its algorithms pumping junk to the top of people's feeds so people would keep watching and the ad dollars would keep flowing. A devastating Bloomberg report earlier this month showed that for years YouTube executives ignored warnings from their own employees that the misinformation and nastiness on the site had gotten out of hand.

For a long time, they chose the money over managing the mayhem.

Today, YouTube says it's serious about cleaning up the issues that have plagued the site for years. But that clean-up appears to have come at the short-term cost of ad revenue growth. (Although it's possible that Porat was referring to other types of changes, or engaging in some selective disclosure to guide investors away from other reasons for the growth slowdown.)

Investors punished the company on Monday by vaporizing more than $70 billion from its market cap.

But if YouTube can fix its content problems and continue to grow beyond its nearly 2 billion users, it has a chance to benefit in the long term.

The new system is still far from perfect, as The New York Times' Kevin Roose pointed out in an interview with YouTube's Chief Product officer Neal Mohan. It's still possible to fall down a rabbit hole of horrible videos on YouTube. But, based on Porat's comments, the changes were effective enough to hurt YouTube engagement.

Still, analysts on Tuesday didn't sound too worried about YouTube's longer term prospects, and cautioned there are other factors playing into the ad growth deceleration.

"YouTube has increased its focus on responsibility and safety, and it adjusted its algorithm in 1Q to reduce recommendations of content that comes close to violating guidelines or is misinformed or harmful," J.P. Morgan analysts wrote in a research note Tuesday morning. They added that, "we don't think there's a single clear answer for Google's [deceleration], but a number of factors are at work."

With billions in market cap gone and analysts already downgrading Alphabet's stock, the biggest question surrounding YouTube today is whether it will continue making improvements to curb the spread of toxic content or be shocked back into inaction for the benefit of its shareholders.

Correction: An earlier version of this story linked to the wrong YouTube blog post announcing changes to content moderation.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/30/youtube-algorithm-changes-negatively-impact-google-ad-revenue.html

2019-04-30 15:15:55Z
52780278414517

Pending home sales skyrocket in March, signalling a spring rebound for housing - MarketWatch

Bloomberg News/Landov
A single family home with a "SOLD" sign in the yard in Denver, Colorado.

The numbers: An index of pending-home sales surged 3.8% in March, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Econoday had forecast a 0.7% monthly increase.

What happened: The pending-home sales index, which tracks home-contract signings, has been volatile over the past few months, but the trend for housing has generally been down. March marked the 15th straight month of yearly declines for the pending sales index, which fell 1.2% over the last 12 months.

Also on Tuesday, the widely-followed Case-Shiller index showed home prices had risen at the slowest pace since mid-2012 in February.

In March, only the Northeast region saw a decline, of 1.7%. Pending home sales were up 4.4% in the South, 2.3% in the Midwest, and a convincing 8.7% in the West, an area dogged by higher prices and stung by recent tax law changes.

See also: Sell your home with a Realtor or an algorithm? Maybe both.

Big picture: Contract signings usually precede closings by about 45 days, so the pending home-sales index is a leading indicator for upcoming existing-home sales reports. The Realtors expect sales of existing homes to be 1.1% lower in 2019 than last year. All eyes are on the busy spring selling season to see if things turn around.

What they’re saying: “There is a pent-up demand in the market, and we should see a better performing market in the coming quarters and years,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.13%   opened higher on Tuesday as investors weighed rosy earnings.

Related: Forget everything you’ve heard about first-time homebuyers. They’re doing all right.

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-skyrocket-in-march-signalling-a-spring-rebound-for-housing-2019-04-30

2019-04-30 14:00:00Z
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GE burns through $1.2 billion but Wall Street is happy it wasn't worse - CNN

Shares of GE (GE) climbed 7% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the company reported profit and revenue that exceeded forecasts. Wall Street is betting the company's recovery remains intact.
GE's struggles continue to be driven by its slumping power division. Profit tumbled 71% in that unit as orders nosedived.
Yet GE is standing by its 2019 guidance for industrial free cash flow to range between negative $2 billion and zero.
GE's subprime mortgage unit files for bankruptcy
"I am encouraged by the improvements we are making inside GE," CEO Larry Culp said in a statement. "This is one quarter in what will be a multi-year transformation, and 2019 remains a reset year for us."
That's despite the emergence of a new risk: the Boeing (BA) 737 Max crisis. A GE joint venture supplies the engines to the 737 Max, which has been grounded due to safety concerns. GE also owns 29 of the 737 Max aircraft through its airplane leasing business, GECAS.
GE said it is working closely with Boeing while conducting "proactive" maintenance on the engines.
"We are confident in the 737 Max aircraft," Culp told analysts during a conference call.

'Long way to go'

GE emphasized that its better-than-feared results were driven by timing. Orders and customer collections arrived earlier than anticipated and GE said this trend should "balance out" later in the year.
"This is a game of inches and we have a long way to go," Culp said.
Culp, who became GE's first outsider CEO last fall, has moved urgently to try to fix the iconic company after years of bad decisions broke its balance sheet. GE slashed its dividend to a penny, accelerated sales of long-held businesses and promised to rapidly pay down debt.
"GE started its 2019 'reset year' with nice momentum," RBC analyst Deane Dray wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. RBC Capital had been bracing for negative free cash flow of up to $4 billion.
During the first quarter, GE announced the sale of its BioPharma unit to Danaher (DHR), closed the spinoff of its century-old railroad division and cleaned up its financial arm. GE Capital reached a $1.5 billion settlement with the Justice Department to resolve allegations against its defunct subprime lender WMC Mortgage. Last week, WMC filed for bankruptcy.
"We continue to focus on reducing leverage and improving the underlying performance of our businesses," Culp said on Tuesday.

Aviation continues to shine

GE Power sales fell 14% decline as the fossil-fuels division continues to get hurt by the rise of renewables. However, GE said its power business performed better than expected, and it reported a 6% increase in its orders backlog. GE has moved to fix the power division by cutting jobs and closing plants.
Aviation continues to be a bright spot at GE. The jet engine division reported a 12% increase in revenue as orders rose 7% thanks to strong demand from manufacturers. GE shipped 424 LEAP engines during the first quarter, up from just 186 the year before.
GE continues to wind down GE Capital, the financial arm that nearly ruined the company during the 2008 crisis. GE Capital reported a profit of $171 million, up from a loss of $1.8 billion a year ago.
"GE remains focused on shrinking and de-risking GE Capital, including improving its leverage profile," the company said.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/30/investing/ge-earnings-stock/index.html

2019-04-30 13:02:00Z
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Home prices continued to grow at a slower rate in February: S&P Case-Shiller - CNBC

Prospective home owners tour a home in Jurupa Valley, California.

Nichola Groom | Reuters

National home prices rose 4% in February compared with February 2018, according to the latest reading on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. That is down from a 4.2% annual gain in January.

The 10-City Composite rose 2.6% annually, down from 3.1% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3% year-over-year gain, down from 3.5% in January.

Markets still gaining big: Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa saw the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. Las Vegas prices were up 9.7%, followed by Phoenix with a 6.7% increase, and Tampa with a 5.4% increase.

Prices have been gaining since 2012, but in the past year those gains have been shrinking, due to higher mortgage rates and a general overheating of values in most metropolitan markets, which hurt sales.

"Home sales drifted down over the last year except for a one-month pop in February 2019," noted David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Sales of new homes, housing starts, and residential investment had similar weak trajectories over the last year."

While it is unlikely that home values will go negative on a national level, the San Francisco Bay Area did see home prices fall annually in March for the first time since 2012, according to CoreLogic. Home prices there had overheated far beyond historical affordability levels, causing home sales to drop dramatically over the past eight months.

"Last year, the largest gain was 12.7% in Seattle. Regional patterns are shifting. The three California cities of Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego have the three slowest price increases over the last year," added Blitzer. "Chicago, New York and Cleveland saw only slightly larger prices increases than California. Prices generally rose faster in inland cities than on either the coasts or the Great Lakes."

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/30/home-prices-grew-at-slower-rate-in-february-sp-case-shiller.html

2019-04-30 13:00:44Z
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GE burns through $1.2 billion but Wall Street is happy it wasn't worse - CNN

Shares of GE (GE) climbed 6% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the company reported profit and revenue that exceeded forecasts. Wall Street is betting the company's recovery remains intact.
GE's struggles continue to be driven by its slumping power division. Profit tumbled 71% in that unit as orders nosedived.
Yet GE is standing by its 2019 guidance for industrial free cash flow to range between negative $2 billion and zero.
GE's subprime mortgage unit files for bankruptcy
"I am encouraged by the improvements we are making inside GE," CEO Larry Culp said in a statement. "This is one quarter in what will be a multi-year transformation, and 2019 remains a reset year for us."
That's despite the emergence of a new risk: the Boeing (BA) 737 Max crisis. A GE joint venture supplies the engines to the 737 Max, which has been grounded due to safety concerns. GE also owns 29 of the 737 Max aircraft through its airplane leasing business, GECAS.
"GE is also working arm in arm with Boeing while actively monitoring the grounding of the 737 MAX fleet," the company said.
Culp, who became GE's first outsider CEO last fall, has moved urgently to try to fix the iconic company after years of bad decisions broke its balance sheet. GE slashed its dividend to a penny, accelerated sales of long-held businesses and promised to rapidly pay down debt.
During the first quarter, GE announced the sale of its BioPharma unit to Danaher (DHR), closed the spinoff of its century-old railroad division and cleaned up its financial arm. GE Capital reached a $1.5 billion settlement with the Justice Department to resolve allegations against its defunct subprime lender WMC Mortgage. Last week, WMC filed for bankruptcy.
"We continue to focus on reducing leverage and improving the underlying performance of our businesses," Culp said on Tuesday.
GE Power sales fell 14% decline as the fossil-fuels division continues to get hurt by the rise of renewables. However, GE said its power business performed better than expected, and it reported a 6% increase in its orders backlog. GE has moved to fix the power division by cutting jobs and closing plants.
Aviation continues to be a bright spot at GE. The jet engine division reported a 12% increase in revenue as orders rose 7% thanks to strong demand from manufacturers. GE shipped 424 LEAP engines during the first quarter, up from just 186 the year before.
GE continues to wind down GE Capital, the financial arm that nearly ruined the company during the 2008 crisis. GE Capital reported a profit of $171 million, up from a loss of $1.8 billion a year ago.
"GE remains focused on shrinking and de-risking GE Capital, including improving its leverage profile," the company said.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/30/investing/ge-earnings-stock/index.html

2019-04-30 11:37:00Z
52780281587221

Alphabet's stock tanks with analysts asking, 'Hey Google, what happened to revenue growth?' - CNBC

Google CEO Sundar Pichai testifies during a House Judiciary Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, December 11, 2018.

Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images

Wall Street analysts were largely caught off guard after Alphabet posted a rare revenue miss in its earnings report on Monday after the bell and they were still confused after the results. Analysts noted a slowdown in advertising revenue growth and repeated calls for the company to be more transparent in its earnings report.

Shares plunged more than 7% in premarket trading.

"This quarter will no doubt result in a reset to forward expectations, particularly for the ads business, as investors search for reasons for the fairly meaningful deceleration – we expect the stock to trade sideways while we all grapple with whether this quarter was simply a result of product change headaches or if ad budgets are shifting elsewhere," Nomura Instinet analyst Mark Kelley said.

"We side with the former and maintain our Buy rating, though calls for more disclosure to help us all with these questions were once again a main theme, and with good reason," the analyst added.

Google revenue increased 17%, slower than the 28% pace a year earlier. Advertising sales increased 15%, compared to a 24% growth rate a year ago. Alphabet executives said on the call that the slowdown was due to currency fluctuations and timing of product changes but analysts apparently wanted more.

The parade of transparency calls continued with analysts at J.P. Morgan. "Overall, we expect GOOGL shares to be under pressure in the near-term given sub-20% revenue growth & downward earnings revisions. As noted above, the exact drivers of GOOGL's slowing topline are unclear, & we believe frustration around GOOGL's lack of transparency will only increase," they said.

Revenue deceleration was enough for analysts at Stifel who downgraded the stock to hold from buy. "The unexpected degree of revenue deceleration and lower visibility into the near-term reacceleration / deceleration potential lead us to believe the multiple on shares may be challenged to move meaningfully higher over the next twelve months," wrote Stifel analyst Scott Devitt.

"Hey Google, What Happened To Revenue Growth?" asked RBC analyst Mark Mahaney in his earnings wrap note to clients.

Still, he said, "we're modest buyers on the 7% AM pullback; we'd be material buyers on a material pullback. We don't believe GOOGL is going through a material, sustained growth deceleration."

Here's what major analysts are saying about Alphabet:

Stifel- Downgraded to hold from buy

"We view shares as fairly-valued at current levels and believe the multiple is likely to remain range bound over the next twelve months as a potential deceleration digestion period lies ahead with lower visibility into near-term revenue growth rates. The upside to Street margin in 1Q would be an encouraging trend all else equal, though the topline deceleration path and questions regarding Alphabet's long-term revenue growth trajectory are likely more meaningful to intermediate-term stock performance in our view, while discretionary spending could also cause opex to tick up again in future quarters. At aftermarket prices, GOOGL shares trade at approximately 22x our 2020E GAAP EPS, matching the three-year historical average of 22x forward two-year EPS."

Goldman Sachs- Buy rating and price target to $1,350 from $1,400

"Despite upside to GAAP EPS excluding the EU fine, Alphabet shares will likely be under pressure as Sites revenue growth on a constant currency basis came in below 20% for the first time since 1Q15. While a bigger FX headwind was clearly a key reason for the shortfall, management cited the timing of ad product changes as another factor that in some quarters are cited as tailwinds but this quarter was cited as hurting revenue growth. The focus will now turn to 2Q19 results and whether or not net ad growth will reaccelerate."

Barclays- Overweight rating and price target to $1,315 from $1,350

"Google missed every revenue line by 1.5%-4% for 1Q, and we were below consensus. We have to imagine that some of the deceleration is deliberate around product changes, and some is Google resetting the bar. Network trends are likely to get worse as Yahoo and AOL drop out of AFS going forward."

J.P. Morgan - Overweight rating and price target to $1,310 from $1,250

"Overall, we expect GOOGL shares to be under pressure in the near-term given sub-20% revenue growth & downward earnings revisions. As noted above, the exact drivers of GOOGL's slowing topline are unclear, & we believe frustration around GOOGL's lack of transparency will only increase. That being said, GOOGL has maintained 20%+ growth for a very long time—off a large base—and now represents roughly 1/3 of the global online ad market. It also faces increased advertising competition from AMZN, at least on the margin. Our 2019/2020 revenue & GAAP EPS all come down about 2% as improved Other Bets losses partly offset slower Google Segment revenue growth. We maintain our Overweight rating, but prefer other FANG names Facebook, Amazon, & Netflix to Google."

Nomura Instinet- Buy rating and price target to $1,300 from $1,310

"This quarter will no doubt result in a reset to forward expectations, particularly for the ads business, as investors search for reasons for the fairly meaningful deceleration – we expect the stock to trade sideways while we all grapple with whether this quarter was simply a result of product change headaches or if ad budgets are shifting elsewhere. We side with the former and maintain our Buy rating, though calls for more disclosure to help us all with these questions were once again a main theme, and with good reason. We're slightly lowering our forward outlook and our target price moves to $1,300."

Morgan Stanley- Overweight rating and price target to $1,425 from $1,500

"GOOGL's 1Q ex FX Websites revenue came in 1% lower than our estimate…growing 19% Y/Y, the first time GOOGL has grown ex FX less than 20% in 17 quarters (Q3:14). GOOGL pointed to "the timing of product changes in ads" as one of the factors that drove the growth deceleration…but didn't provide any more clarity around what the changes were, whether the impact will be linear by quarter, or whether there will be more changes to come. The fact is we aren't sure what changes GOOGL made in the quarter that drove the deceleration and this is something the Street must figure out. While EBIT, EBITDA, and FCF were all stronger than expected, the forward growth trajectory of Websites revenue (given the scale and leverage in this ~$100bn annualized business) is likely to remain top of mind to determining long-term valuation."

RBC- Outperform rating

"We're modest buyers on the 7% AM pullback; we'd be material buyers on a material pullback. We don't believe GOOGL is going through a material, sustained growth deceleration. 1) The TAM remains $1T+ in global advertising/marketing spend. 2) Based on our extensive survey work, we don't see evidence of changes in Marketers' view of Google – budget allocations, future spend intentions, or perceived ROI (absolute or relative). And 3) We believe GOOGL's investments in Cloud, Internet-connected Homes & Autonomous Vehicles help set the company up for more years of premium growth & profits. And valuation remains reasonable, in our view, at ~20x Core Google '19E GAAP EPS, adjusting for cash."

Bank of America- Buy rating

"Revenue decelerated more than expected, while several peers exceeded expectations (though FB ad growth decelerated 220 bps q/q, much like Google ads) and we would expect Google stock to give back some of the recent gains (stock has rallied from $1,200 in early April, vs S&P index up 4%). Looking forward, while tougher comps may continue to impact 2019 ad revenues, Google could also introduce improvements which could accelerate revenues. While we are disappointed by below-Street revenue (and Google could avoid some stock volatility with better disclosure), we continue to be optimistic on medium-term benefit from machine learning on ad targeting, revenue potential driven by new investments (Google cloud and Waymo) and relatively undemanding core Google valuation. We maintain our Buy rating. Potential catalysts from here include: 1) new products (hardware) at Google I/O on May 7th; 2) YouTube news from upfront; and 3) visibility on Google Cloud or Waymo."

Deutsche Bank- Buy rating and price target to $1,300 to $1,385

"We appreciate quarterly results can be volatile and acknowledge the company's long-term focus, but the magnitude of the deceleration on a constant-currency basis marked the largest sequential move down since 3Q12. Given the magnitude of the change here, particularly given the consistency of growth rates historically, we think Google did a poor job explaining the slow-down. While the CFO flagged timing uncertainty last quarter, the comments were so opaque as to render them meaningless to most investors rather than a proper warning that top line growth would slow. In addition to the sharp deceleration, with gross ad revenue approaching $154B at Google in 2020, combined Google + Face-book ad revs of $237B in 2020 is on track to cross 40% of the global ad market by our estimates. Given slowing growth and rising penetration, we see saturation fears coming back to the fore on Alphabet shares. We reduce our total sites revenue ex-FX in 2019 to 18% (from 20.7%) and reduce our target price to $1,300 (from $1,385 previously) reflecting lower estimates and slightly lower multiples."

UBS- Buy rating

"After a Q4 earnings call message of potential volatile ad revs due to product changes, GOOG's Q1 '19 earnings report reflected that message (our conservative modeling was not enough) US/Europe ad revs decelerated worse than expected (our initial take is that trend is driven by supply/clicks as opposed to demand). Mgmt framed tough YoY comps (we think referencing YouTube product strength from year ago as headwind to volumes) & emphasized that no one product change caused such a headwind. We take a more modest approach to ad revs growth in 2019 to conservatively frame tough comps and/or potential product changes as we attempt to correctly frame the headwind. Leaving aside the short term debate (as a stock overhang), we still see GOOG as a key long term holding and nothing in this quarter changes our view on the structural drivers of revenue growth and FCF generation (AI/machine learning, local advertising, media consumption, cloud computing, hardware & Other Bets) – especially at what we see as a reasonable absolute valuation when measured against growth."

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/30/alphabet-stock-slammed-as-analysts-cite-lack-of-revenue-growth-and-transparency.html

2019-04-30 11:22:22Z
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GE burns through $1.2 billion but Wall Street is happy it wasn't worse - CNN

GE's (GE) struggles continue to be driven by its slumping power division. Profit tumbled 71% in that unit as orders nosedived.
However, GE reported adjusted profits and revenue that exceeded forecasts. And GE's stock soared 7% in premarket trading as Wall Street bets the company's recovery remains intact.
GE is standing by its 2019 guidance for industrial free cash flow to range between negative $2 billion and zero.
GE's subprime mortgage unit files for bankruptcy
"I am encouraged by the improvements we are making inside GE," CEO Larry Culp said in a statement. "This is one quarter in what will be a multi-year transformation, and 2019 remains a reset year for us."
That's despite the emergence of a new risk: the Boeing (BA) 737 Max crisis. A GE joint venture supplies the engines to the 737 Max, which has been grounded due to safety concerns.
"GE is also working arm in arm with Boeing while actively monitoring the grounding of the 737 MAX fleet," the company said.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/30/investing/ge-earnings-stock/index.html

2019-04-30 10:59:00Z
52780281611582

Vodafone Found Hidden Backdoors in Huawei Equipment - Bloomberg

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Vodafone Found Hidden Backdoors in Huawei Equipment  Bloomberg

Vodafone Group Plc has acknowledged that it found vulnerabilities going back years with equipment supplied by Huawei Technologies Co. for the carrier's ...

View full coverage on Google News
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/vodafone-found-hidden-backdoors-in-huawei-equipment-jv3fmbrc

2019-04-30 06:50:00Z
CAIiEMAFhEAtUruiF_WfhzMo9VwqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM

Gold Prices Gain on Weak China PMI Data - Investing.com

© Reuters.  © Reuters.

Investing.com - Gold prices gained on Tuesday in Asia on the back of weaker-than-expected China PMI data for the month of April.

for June delivery, traded on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, were up 0.3% at $1,285.75 per ounce by 1:30 AM ET (05:30 GMT).

The official manufacturing PMI and the Caixin PMI for the April period both came lower than expected.

Asian stocks fell on Tuesday following the release of the China data, although the and the SZSE Component traded higher.

Gold prices were under some pressure earlier this week as data showed 9-1/2 year highs in April's U.S. consumer spending. The data boosted risk in equity markets and lowered appetite for safe havens like gold.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy slowed to 1.3% in the 12 months through March from 1.8% the previous month.

Traders are also keenly eyeing China-U.S. trade talks as the U.S. and China are ready to kick off the latest round of negotiations this week in Beijing.

Earlier, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin told the New York Times that negotiations are in "the final laps” while U.S. President Donald Trump said last week that he would soon host Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the White House and might sign a possible agreement on trade there.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-prices-gain-on-weak-china-pmi-data-1850176

2019-04-30 05:36:00Z
52780279041341

Senin, 29 April 2019

WeWork’s I.P.O. Plan Is Filed With Regulators - The New York Times

WeWork, the co-working company, has filed confidentially to go public, the company announced on Monday, becoming the latest privately held giant to consider heading to the stock markets.

The company initially filed paperwork to go public with regulators in December. Changes to that filing were made last week, Adam Neumann, a co-founder of WeWork, wrote in a memo sent to employees that was reviewed by The New York Times.

“We have regularly focused on how to take our business to the next level in every aspect,” Mr. Neumann wrote.

Like many of the other richly valued start-ups that have planned their stock-market debuts, WeWork posts steep losses — and shows no sign of turning a profit anytime soon.

The company was valued at $47 billion in its last fund-raising round, including the new money raised. That private valuation would be put to the test by the I.P.O. process. While WeWork’s revenue is growing quickly — it doubled last year to $1.8 billion — so are its losses, which more than doubled to $1.9 billion.

Those companies, like WeWork, Uber and Lyft, have argued that growing quickly is more important, and will eventually prove more lucrative, than breaking even right now.

Begun as a co-working space in Manhattan eight years ago, WeWork has become one of the world’s biggest corporate landlords. It continues to expand rapidly into new markets.

The initial filing to regulators was made before the company’s talks to sell a majority stake in itself to SoftBank, the Japanese technology conglomerate, ran into trouble. SoftBank ultimately invested a further $2 billion in the company, for a total of $10.5 billion.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/29/business/dealbook/wework-ipo-filing.html

2019-04-29 18:45:05Z
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Marriott is reportedly launching a home-sharing product in the U.S. - TechCrunch

Airbnb is about to face some more competition in the U.S. with Marriott’s reported entrance into the home-sharing business. On the heels of a successful home-sharing pilot in Europe, Marriott is gearing up to launch a home rentals product in the U.S., according to the Wall Street Journal. Marriott is expected to make the plans public as early as next month.

While Marriott is the largest hotel operator with 1.29 million guest rooms around the globe, according to STR, Airbnb is the largest room provider with 4.92 million listings on its platform, according to AirDNA.

Marriott’s entrance into the U.S. comes after its home-sharing pilot in Europe, where it offered nearly 400 homes to customers in Paris, Rome, Lisbon and London. The timing of its product is notable, given Airbnb’s recent acquisition of HotelTonight and its impending initial public offering. However, Airbnb is actively trying to become more than just a home-sharing platform, with hotel booking, travel arrangements for business trips, experiences and even original programming.

In January, Airbnb said it was profitable on an EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) basis for the second year in a row in 2018.

I’ve reached out to Marriott and will update this story if I hear back.

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https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/29/marriott-is-reportedly-launching-a-home-sharing-product-in-the-u-s/

2019-04-29 16:19:59Z
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What's moving markets today: Live updates - cnn.com

US stocks started the in record territory once again, although they rose tepidly.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were up less than a tenth of a percent Monday. Both closed at record highs Friday.

The Dow rose a couple points. It remains about 300 points off its record. The Dow has failed to set records mostly because Boeing has been a drag on the index in the past month.

Anadarko (APC) fell a half percentage point and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) fell more than 2% after they announced they would explore a merger. Chevron (CVX), which has apparently been outbid by Occidental, was flat Monday.

Tesla (TSLA) fell about a half percentage point after the company announced it might seek alternate modes of financing.

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https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/stock-market-news-today-032919/index.html

2019-04-29 13:42:00Z
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U.S. consumer spending posts biggest gain since 2009 - Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending increased by the most in more than 9-1/2 years in March, but price pressures remained muted, with a key inflation measure posting its smallest annual gain in 14 months.

FILE PHOTO: People are seen with shopping bags in Times Square in New York City, U.S., November 23, 2018. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

The surge in consumer spending reported by the Commerce Department on Monday sets a stronger base for growth in consumption heading into the second quarter after it slowed sharply in the first three months of the year. Tame inflation, however, supports the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to suspend further interest rate increases this year.

Fed officials are scheduled to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to assess the economy and deliberate on the future course of monetary policy. The U.S. central bank in March dropped forecasts for any interest rate increases this year, halting a three-year policy tightening campaign. The Fed raised borrowing costs four times in 2018.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, surged 0.9 percent as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and spent more on healthcare. Consumer spending edged up 0.1 percent in February. Data for January was revised up to show consumer spending rising 0.3 percent instead of the previously reported 0.1 percent gain.

The release of the February spending data was delayed by a five-week partial shutdown of the federal government that ended on Jan. 25. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending jumping 0.7 percent in March.

When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased 0.7 percent in March. This so-called real consumer spending was unchanged in February. The data was included in last Friday’s first-quarter gross domestic product report.

March’s surge in real consumer spending suggested an acceleration in consumption was likely in the second quarter. Consumers spending increased at a 1.2 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, the slowest in a year. The overall economy grew at a 3.2 percent rate last quarter.

U.S. Treasury yields were little changed after the consumer spending and inflation data. The dollar held steady against a basket of currencies. U.S. stock index futures were trading slightly lower.

TAME INFLATION

In March, spending on goods rebounded 1.7 percent, with outlays on long-lasting manufactured goods such as cars shooting up 2.3 percent. Spending on goods fell 0.5 percent in February. Outlays on services increased 0.5 percent last month, driven by healthcare spending, after rising 0.4 percent in February.

Inflation was benign, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding the volatile food and energy components unchanged in March after edging up 0.1 percent in February. That lowered the year-on-year increase in the so-called core PCE price index to 1.6 percent, the smallest increase since January 2018, from 1.7 percent in February.

The core PCE index is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. It hit the central bank’s 2 percent inflation target in March last year for the first time since April 2012.

In March, personal income ticked up 0.1 percent after rising 0.2 percent in February. Wages rose 0.4 percent in March after advancing 0.3 percent in the prior month.

Savings fell to $1.03 trillion in March from $1.16 trillion in February. The saving rate dipped to 6.5 percent last month from 7.3 percent in February.

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/us-consumer-spending-posts-biggest-gain-since-2009-idUSKCN1S516T

2019-04-29 12:38:00Z
CBMib2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnJldXRlcnMuY29tL2FydGljbGUvdXMtdXNhLWVjb25vbXkvdXMtY29uc3VtZXItc3BlbmRpbmctcG9zdHMtYmlnZ2VzdC1nYWluLXNpbmNlLTIwMDktaWRVU0tDTjFTNTE2VNIBNGh0dHBzOi8vbW9iaWxlLnJldXRlcnMuY29tL2FydGljbGUvYW1wL2lkVVNLQ04xUzUxNlQ

Burger King plans to roll out Impossible Whopper across the United States - CNN

On April 1, Burger King started testing the vegetarian burger, using a plant-based patty from Impossible Foods. The test took place in St. Louis and "went exceedingly well," a spokesperson for Restaurant Brands International (QSR), Burger King's parent company, said. The spokesperson added that the sales of the Impossible Whopper are complementary to the regular Whopper.
That's exactly what Burger King wants.
With the Impossible Whopper, Burger King is primarily targeting meat eaters who seek more balance in their diet. The new product is designed to "give somebody who wants to eat a burger every day, but doesn't necessarily want to eat beef everyday, permission to come into the restaurants more frequently," Chris Finazzo, president of Burger King North America, told CNN Business when discussing the initial test.
Burger King started testing out the Impossible Whopper in St. Louis.
The Impossible Whopper is supposed to taste just like Burger King's regular Whopper. Unlike veggie burgers, Impossible burger patties are designed to mimic the look and texture of meat when cooked. The plant protein startup recently revealed a new recipe, designed to look and taste even more like meat. That version is being used in Burger King's Impossible Whoppers.
The company plans to expand to more markets "in the very near future" before making the sandwich available nationally by the end of the year. Burger King had about 7,300 US locations at the close of last year.
There's public interest in plant-based protein because of concerns about animal welfare and the environmental impact of factory farming, and because some consumers are interested in reducing their consumption of meat for health reasons.
Soylent was a tech company that sold food. Now it wants to go mainstream
And the interest appears to be growing. The global market for meat substitutes is forecast to grow from an estimated $4.6 billion in 2018 to $6.4 billion by 2023, according to research firm MarketsandMarkets.
Beyond Meat, Impossible Food's primary competitor, thinks that the potential is bigger. In an SEC filing detailing plans for the 10-year-old company's IPO, Beyond Meat projected that over time the plant based-meat market could reach $35 billion in the United States. Beyond Meat plans to start trading in early May.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/29/business/burger-king-impossible-rollout/index.html

2019-04-29 11:18:00Z
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Spotify has 100 million Premium users - Engadget

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Bence Bezeredy via Getty Images

Spotify has 100 million Premium users, the company has announced in its most recent financial figures. In total, the streaming service has 217 million users, 117 million of which are enjoying the free, ad supported tier.

Despite only launching in India at the end of February, Spotify has already started to build an audience in the country. The company says that more than a million users signed up in the first week, a figure that has more than doubled in the following four weeks.

Unfortunately, despite those numbers going up, Spotify can't turn that success into profits, losing €142 million ($158 million) in the quarter. That figure really looks bad if you compare it to the €442 million ($493 million) in profit it made back in December.

If there is cause for optimism, it's that the loss is better than the one sustained in the same period in 2018, where it lost €169 million ($188 million). Unfortunately, Spotify has laid the blame for some of that loss at its employees (who, because the stock price rose, got bigger bonuses) and paying its fair share of tax.

Spotify doesn't expect to be making crazy profits any time soon, but is expecting to strengthen its grip on the global music market. Between its deals with Google, Samsung and Hulu, people won't be able to move for offers to sign up to the streaming service.

The company is looking to podcasting as a way of shoring up its future since, as we explained before, podcasts are cheap and have dedicated audiences. Despite just buying Anchor and Gimlet, Spotify has already seen revenue from its exclusive ad-supported podcasts rise, with more expected to come.

It remains to be seen if Spotify's proxy war with Apple in Europe will come to anything, but these figures make it harder for the company to be painted as the little guy. After all, its better-funded American rival has less than a quarter of its total user numbers, no matter how hard Daniel Ek complains.

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https://www.engadget.com/2019/04/29/spotify-has-100-million-premium-users/

2019-04-29 10:49:37Z
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Spotify Technology S.A. Announces Financial Results for First Quarter 2019 - Business Wire

NEW YORK--()--Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT) today reported financial results for the first fiscal quarter of 2019 ending March 31, 2019.

Dear Shareholders,

Results for Q1 2019 were largely positive with most metrics outperforming our expectations and landing at the high end of, or exceeding, our Q1 guidance.1

MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS (“MAUs”)

MAUs grew 26% Y/Y to 217 million, slightly lower than the midpoint of our 215-220 million MAU guidance range.

We launched India in late February expanding our global market footprint to 79 countries. More than 1 million users signed up for Spotify in our first week in the market, and growth has continued to outpace our expectations. We now have more than 2 million users in India.

PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS

Premium Subscribers grew to 100 million, up 32% Y/Y, reaching the high end of our guidance range of 97-100 million, and marking an important milestone in Company history. Outperformance was driven by a better than plan promotion in the US and Canada and continued strong growth in Family Plan. We also saw strong growth from the expansion of our Google Home Mini promotion, as well as the price reduction to our Spotify Premium + Hulu offering in the US.

In March, we extended our partnership with Google by expanding our Google Home Mini promotion to two new markets, the UK and France. The new promotional offer is substantially similar to the deal offered in the US in Q4. In the UK and France, new and existing Family Plan master account holders can claim a free Google Home Mini voice speaker. We believe that voice speakers are a critical area of growth, particularly for music and podcasts, and we intend to continue to pursue opportunities to expand our presence in that area.

We announced a significant step forward in our ongoing partnership with Samsung during Q1 whereby the Spotify app will be preloaded on millions of new devices globally. New users in the US who purchase Samsung’s flagship Galaxy S10 device with the Spotify app preloaded also will have access to a special six month free trial offer for Spotify Premium.

Additionally, we expanded our partnership with Hulu during Q1 by offering their limited commercial plan to our Standard $9.99 subscribers at no additional charge. This promotion replaces our existing $12.99 Spotify + Hulu bundle and builds upon the success and popularity of our Spotify Student + Hulu plan available in the US.

Family and Student plans continue their fast growth and have continued to increase as a percentage of our total subscribers. Churn was flat with Q4 and also roughly the same as Q1 of 2018.

FINANCIAL METRICS

Revenue
Total Q1 revenue of €1,511 million grew 33% Y/Y.

Premium revenue of €1,385 million in Q1 grew 34% Y/Y, the third quarter of accelerating Y/Y growth in the last four quarters. Average revenue per user (“ARPU”) was €4.71 in Q1, roughly flat Y/Y (down 2% excluding the impact from foreign exchange rates). Downward pressure on ARPU has moderated, and we expect that ARPU declines through the remainder of the year will be in the low single digits. As we’ve spoken about in previous quarters, the declines in ARPU are a result of shifts in both product and geographic mix. Approximately 75% of the impact to ARPU is attributable to product mix changes, and the remainder a function of changes in geographic mix and other factors.

Ad-Supported revenue of €126 million grew 24% Y/Y. We saw a small incremental benefit from podcasts during Q1 following our acquisitions of Gimlet Media and Anchor in February and the successful rollout of Spotify owned and exclusive content (The Joe Budden Podcast, Amy Schumer Presents: 3 Girls, 1 Keith, Dope Labs, etc.) We expect the revenue from podcasts to accelerate through 2019. Over time, our ambition is to develop a more robust advertising solution for podcasts that will allow us to layer in the kind of targeting, measurement, and reporting capabilities we have for the core Ad-Supported business.

Ad-Supported revenue growth underperformed our expectations in Q1, primarily in the US and primarily with our sponsored sessions video product. The performance shortfall was pricing related. We have course corrected and are seeing strong growth across the ads business in Q2.

Two of our strongest areas of growth in Q1 were measurement and programmatic revenues. Measurement related revenues doubled from 20% to 40% of total ad revenues Y/Y, while Programmatic and Self-Serve grew 53% Y/Y and now account for 26% of Total Ad-Supported Revenue.

In April of last year we officially unveiled a new Ad-Supported experience on Spotify. The updated user experience provided greater consumer control and an increased focus on curation and personalization. The net result has been a 12% increase in Content Hours per MAU across our free tier. This means accelerating growth in ad inventory, which should mean stronger Ad-Supported revenue growth.

Gross Margin
Gross Margin was 24.7% in Q1, above the high end of our guidance range of 22.5-24.5%. Outperformance relative to our expectations resulted from a combination of outperformance of Premium Subscribers, slower than anticipated release of original podcast content, and supply constraints of Google Home Mini devices relating to our Family Plan promotion.

Premium Gross Margin was 25.9% in Q1, down from 27.3% in Q4 and down 20 bps Y/Y. Ad-Supported Gross Margin was 11.1% in Q1, down seasonally from 22.1% in Q4 and down 160 bps Y/Y.

Spotify for Artists
In October 2018, we launched Spotify for Podcasters in beta, a platform that provides podcast creators with tools and data insights about audience demographics. Early adoption continues to gain momentum, as the number of podcast creators using the platform has nearly doubled in the first 6 months. More than 20,000 podcast teams are now using the platform on a monthly basis. Additionally, more than 50,000 shows have been submitted to Spotify through Spotify for Podcasters, enabling listeners around the world to discover new and unique content that suits their interests. Today there are more than 250,000 podcast titles available on our platform. In Q1 we launched 15 originals and exclusives including Podkinski in Germany, Gynning & Berg in Sweden, and our daily news podcast, Cafe da Manha in Brazil, a format we hope to expand to other countries in Latin America.

Last month Spotify for Artists launched a new feature called Unique Links. This tool enables artists to share a customized URL that links to a playlist featuring their track(s) at the top of the playlist. By offering greater personalization of Editorial playlists, we’ve increased the number of artists featured on playlists by 30% and the number of songs listeners are discovering by 35%.

In Q1 we continued to develop tools for Spotify Publishing Analytics. We introduced playlist add annotations which allow publishers to see when their songs are added to playlists and understand which playlists drive spikes in listening. To date we’ve seen engagement from 40 of the top music publishers around the world.

Operating Expenses / Income (Loss)
Operating expenses of €420 million in Q1 increased 30% Y/Y. Operating Losses totaled €47 million yielding an Operating Margin of (3.1%), an improvement of 50 bps Y/Y. Our better than expected loss in the quarter was a result of higher Gross Profit and lower than expected marketing spend.

The growth in our share price in Q1 significantly increased our operating expenses for the quarter. The increase in our stock price resulted in a significant increase of accrued social costs for stock options and RSUs. As a reminder, social costs are payroll taxes associated with employee salaries and benefits, including stock based compensation. We are subject to social taxes in several countries in which we operate, although Sweden accounts for the bulk of the social costs. We don’t forecast stock price changes in our guidance so material upward or downward movements can have an outsized impact on our reported operating expenses.

IFRS 16
Starting January 1, 2019, we adopted the new lease accounting standards dictated by IFRS 16. This required certain leases which were accounted for as operating leases be treated as finance leases going forward. Certain leases were reclassified as assets and liabilities on the balance sheet which yielded increased depreciation and interest expense, offset by a reduction in rental expense. We recognized €9 million of lease liability interest expense in finance costs during the first quarter of 2019.

Free Cash Flow
We generated €209 million in net cash flows from operating activities and €173 million in Free Cash Flow in Q1. Both more than doubled Y/Y. Free Cash Flow in Q1 benefited from the growth of accounts payable. We maintain positive working capital dynamics, and our goal is to sustain and grow Free Cash Flow, excluding the impact of capital expenditures associated with the build-out of new and existing offices in New York, London, Los Angeles, Stockholm, and Boston, among others. We paid out approximately €37 million associated with our office builds in Q1. We expect to complete these projects over the next 12 months at a cost of roughly €200 million. As a result, we are expecting a sequential increase in capital expenditures for office space in Q2 of approximately €25 million.

We ended Q1 with €1.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short term investments.

Q1 Investments Update
In Q1 the value of our Tencent Music (“TME”) investment increased by €652 million to €2.3 billion. The change in value was accounted for as a gain in Other Comprehensive Income. We also spent €308 million in total purchase consideration to acquire Gimlet Media and Anchor FM, and subsequent to the quarter end, we acquired a third podcasting company, Cutler Media, LLC (“Parcast”), for total purchase consideration of approximately €50 million. The combined purchase consideration for all three podcast companies was €358M which is roughly equivalent to Spotify’s cumulative FCF over the last three quarters, or alternatively, 55% of the Q2 increase in the value of our TME investment.

Growth of Global Recorded Music Market Accelerates
The International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (“IFPI”) released its annual Global Music Report in April 2019. IFPI reported that industry growth accelerated to 9.7% in 2018 to $19.1 billion, an increase from 8.1% in 2017 and the fourth consecutive year of growth. While Physical declined 10% and Downloads declined 21%, Streaming grew 34%, and now accounts for 47% of all industry revenue. Streaming is the engine driving the growth in recorded music revenue and Spotify is the engine driving the growth in Streaming.

Q2 2019 AND FULL YEAR OUTLOOK

These forward-looking statements reflect Spotify’s expectations as of April 29, 2019 and are subject to substantial uncertainty.

Q2 2019 Guidance:

  • Total MAUs: 222-228 million, up 23-27% Y/Y
  • Total Premium Subscribers: 107-110 million, up 29-34% Y/Y
  • Total Revenue: €1.51-€1.71 billion, up 18-35% Y/Y
  • Gross Margin: 23.5-25.5%
  • Operating Profit/Loss: €(15)-(€95) million

Full Year 2019 Guidance:

  • Total MAUs: 245-265 million, up 18-28% Y/Y
  • Total Premium Subscribers: 117-127 million, up 21-32% Y/Y
  • Total Revenue: €6.35-€6.8 billion, up 21-29% Y/Y
  • Gross Margin: 22.0-25.0%
  • Operating Profit/Loss: €(180)-(€340) million

Our quarterly and annual guidance continues to include an estimate of the impact of social charges on our financial statements. This expense can vary materially from quarter to quarter based on fluctuations in the price of Spotify stock, which impacts our accruals for future expenses. Our forecast guidance ranges incorporate our best estimate of the impact of social charges on our income statement; however, material changes in the value of Spotify’s stock price could have an outsized impact on our reported profit or loss for the quarter and/or the year.

SHARE REPURCHASE PROGRAM UPDATE

On November 5, 2018, Spotify announced a program to repurchase up to $1.0 billion of its publicly traded shares. During Q1, the Company repurchased 1,019,409 shares at a total cost of $138.2 million and an average cost of $135.58 per share. In total, the Company has repurchased 1,706,680 shares at a total cost of $225.5 million and an average cost of $132.13 per share.

EARNINGS QUESTION & ANSWER SESSION

The Company will host a live question and answer session starting at 8 a.m. ET today on investors.spotify.com. Daniel Ek, our Founder and CEO, and Barry McCarthy, our Chief Financial Officer, will be on hand to answer questions submitted to ir@spotify.com and via the live chat window available through the webcast. Participants also may join using the listen-only conference line:

Participant Toll Free Dial-In Number: (844) 343-9039
Participant International Dial-In Number: (647) 689-5130
Conference ID: 4598466

Use of Non IFRS Measures

This shareholder letter includes references to the non-IFRS financial measures of EBITDA and Free Cash Flow. Management believes that EBITDA and Free Cash Flow are important metrics because they present measures that approximate the amount of cash generated that is available to repay debt obligations, make investments, and for certain other activities that excludes certain infrequently occurring and/or non-cash items. However, these measures should be considered in addition to, not as a substitute for or superior to, net income, operating income, or other financial measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. This shareholder letter also includes references to the non-IFRS financial measures of Revenue excluding foreign exchange effect, Premium revenue excluding foreign exchange effect and Ad-Supported revenue excluding foreign exchange effect. Management believes that Revenue excluding foreign exchange effect, Premium revenue excluding foreign exchange effect and Ad-Supported revenue excluding foreign exchange effect are important metrics because they present measures that facilitate comparison to our historical performance. Revenue excluding foreign exchange effect, Premium revenue excluding foreign exchange effect and Ad-Supported revenue excluding foreign exchange effect should be considered in addition to, not as a substitute for or superior to, Revenue, Premium revenue, Ad-Supported revenue or other financial measures prepared in accordance with IFRS.

Forward Looking Statements

This shareholder letter contains estimates and forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. The words “may,” “might,” “will,” “could,” “would,” “should,” “expect,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “seek,” “believe,” “estimate,” “predict,” “potential,” “continue,” “contemplate,” “possible,” and similar words are intended to identify estimates and forward-looking statements.

Our estimates and forward-looking statements are mainly based on our current expectations and estimates of future events and trends, which affect or may affect our businesses and operations. Although we believe that these estimates and forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, they are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties and are made in light of information currently available to us. Many important factors may adversely affect our results as indicated in forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to: our ability to attract prospective users and to retain existing users; our dependence upon third-party licenses for sound recordings and musical compositions; our lack of control over the providers of our content and their effect on our access to music and other content; our ability to generate sufficient revenue to be profitable or to generate positive cash flow on a sustained basis; our ability to comply with the many complex license agreements to which we are a party; our ability to accurately estimate the amounts payable under our license agreements; the limitations on our operating flexibility due to the minimum guarantees required under certain of our license agreements; our ability to obtain accurate and comprehensive information about music compositions in order to obtain necessary licenses or perform obligations under our existing license agreements; potential breaches of our security systems; assertions by third parties of infringement or other violations by us of their intellectual property rights; competition for users and user listening time; our ability to accurately estimate our user metrics and other estimates; risks associated with manipulation of stream counts and user accounts and unauthorized access to our services; changes in legislation or governmental regulations affecting us; ability to hire and retain key personnel; our ability to maintain, protect, and enhance our brand; risks associated with our international expansion, including difficulties obtaining rights to stream music on favorable terms; risks relating to the acquisition, investment, and disposition of companies or technologies; dilution resulting from additional share issuances; tax-related risks; the concentration of voting power among our founders who have and will continue to have substantial control over our business; risks related to our status as a foreign private issuer; international, national or local economic, social or political conditions; and risks associated with accounting estimates, currency fluctuations and foreign exchange controls.

Other sections of this report describe additional risk factors that could adversely impact our business and financial performance. Moreover, we operate in an evolving environment. New risk factors and uncertainties emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for our management to predict all risk factors and uncertainties, nor are we able to assess the impact of all of these risk factors on our business or the extent to which any risk factor, or combination of risk factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. We qualify all of our forward-looking statements by these cautionary statements. You should read this report and the documents that we have filed as exhibits to this report completely and with the understanding that our actual future results may be materially different and worse from what we expect.

     
Interim condensed consolidated statement of operations

(Unaudited)

(in € millions, except share and per share data)

 
Three months ended
March 31,

2019

    December 31,

2018

    March 31,

2018

Revenue 1,511 1,495 1,139
Cost of revenue 1,138   1,096   856  
Gross profit 373 399 283
Research and development 155 100 115
Sales and marketing 172 163 138
General and administrative 93   42   71  
420   305   324  
Operating (loss)/income (47 ) 94 (41 )
Finance income 34 389 15
Finance costs (156 ) (2 ) (154 )
Finance income/(costs) - net (122 ) 387   (139 )
Loss before tax (169 ) 481 (180 )
Income tax (benefit)/expense (27 ) 39   (11 )
Net (loss)/income attributable to owners of the parent (142 ) 442   (169 )
(Loss)/earnings per share attributable to owners

of the parent

Basic (0.79 ) 2.44   (1.01 )
Diluted (0.79 ) 0.36   (1.01 )
Weighted-average ordinary shares outstanding
Basic 180,613,539   181,067,994   167,778,952  
Diluted 180,613,539   190,511,148   167,778,952  
 
         
Condensed consolidated statement of financial position

(Unaudited)

(in € millions)

 
March 31,

2019

December 31,

2018

Assets
Non-current assets
Lease right-of-use assets 430
Property and equipment 235 197
Goodwill 424 146
Intangible assets 54 28
Long term investments 2,299 1,646
Restricted cash and other non-current assets 70 65
Deferred tax assets 10   8  
3,522   2,090  
Current assets
Trade and other receivables 391 400
Income tax receivable 2 2
Short term investments 660 915
Cash and cash equivalents 966 891
Other current assets 52   38  
2,071   2,246  
Total assets 5,593   4,336  
Equity and liabilities
Equity
Share capital
Other paid in capital 3,834 3,801
Treasury shares (198 ) (77 )
Other reserves 1,491 875
Accumulated deficit (2,665 ) (2,505 )
Equity attributable to owners of the parent 2,462   2,094  
Non-current liabilities
Lease liabilities 555
Accrued expenses and other liabilities 1 85
Provisions 7 8
Deferred tax liabilities 61   2  
624   95  
Current liabilities
Trade and other payables 397 427
Income tax payable 4 5
Deferred revenue 273 258
Accrued expenses and other liabilities 1,298 1,076
Provisions 44 42
Derivative liabilities 491   339  
2,507   2,147  
Total liabilities 3,131   2,242  
Total equity and liabilities 5,593   4,336  
 
     
Interim condensed consolidated statement of cash flows

(Unaudited)

(in € millions)

 
Three months ended
March 31,

2019

    December 31,

2018

    March 31,

2018

Operating activities
Net (loss)/income (142 ) 442 (169 )
Adjustments to reconcile net loss to net cash flows
Depreciation of property and equipment 17 4 9
Amortization of intangible assets 4 4 2
Share-based payments expense 26 23 18
Finance income (34 ) (389 ) (15 )
Finance costs 156 2 154
Income tax (benefit)/expense (27 ) 39 (11 )
Other 8 15 1
Changes in working capital:
Decrease/(increase) in trade receivables

and other assets

35 (59 ) 15
Increase in trade and other liabilities 155 57 70
Increase in deferred revenue 13 17 9
Decrease in provisions (7 ) (3 )
Interest paid on lease liabilities (4 )
Interest received 4 3 10
Income tax paid (2 ) (1 ) (6 )
Net cash flows from operating activities 209   150   84  
Investing activities
Business combinations, net of cash acquired (288 )
Purchases of property and equipment (37 ) (65 ) (6 )
Purchases of short term investments (104 ) (300 ) (271 )
Sales and maturities of short term investments 383 66 430
Change in restricted cash 1 (1 ) (4 )
Other (4 )   (10 )
Net cash flows (used in)/from investing activities (49 ) (300 ) 139  
Financing activities
Payments of lease liabilities (5 )
Repurchases of ordinary shares (126 ) (72 )
Proceeds from exercise of share options 33 17 39
Other     4  
Net cash flow (used in)/from financing activities (98 ) (55 ) 43  
Net increase in cash and cash equivalents 62 (205 ) 266
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of the period 891 1,095 477
Net exchange gains/(losses) on cash and cash equivalents 13   1   (10 )
Cash and cash equivalents at period end 966   891   733  
 
     
Reconciliation of IFRS to Non-IFRS Results

(Unaudited)

(in € millions, except percentages)

 
Three months ended
March 31,

2019

    March 31,

2018

IFRS revenue 1,511 1,139
Foreign exchange effect on 2019 revenue using 2018 rates (33 )
Revenue excluding foreign exchange effect 1,478
IFRS revenue year-over-year change % 33 %

Revenue excluding foreign exchange effect year-over-year change %

30 %
IFRS Premium revenue 1,385 1,037
Foreign exchange effect on 2019 Premium revenue using 2018 rates (26 )
Premium revenue excluding foreign exchange effect 1,359
IFRS Premium revenue year-over-year change % 34 %

Premium revenue excluding foreign exchange effect year-over-year change %

31 %
IFRS Ad-Supported revenue 126 102

Foreign exchange effect on 2019 Ad-Supported revenue using 2018 rates

(7 )
Ad-Supported revenue excluding foreign exchange effect 119
IFRS Ad-Supported revenue year-over-year change % 24 %

Ad-Supported revenue excluding foreign exchange effect year-over-year change %

17 %
 
     
EBITDA

(Unaudited)

(in € millions)

 
Three months ended  
March 31,

2019

    December 31,

2018

    March 31,

2018

Net (loss)/income attributable to owners of the parent (142 ) 442 (169 )
Finance income/(costs) - net 122 (387 ) 139
Income tax (benefit)/expense (27 ) 39 (11 )
Depreciation and amortization 21   8   11  
EBITDA (26 ) 102   (30 )
 
     
Free Cash Flow

(Unaudited)

(in € millions)

 
Three months ended  
March 31,

2019

    December 31,

2018

    March 31,

2018

Net cash flows from operating activities 209 150 84
Capital expenditures (37 ) (65 ) (6 )
Change in restricted cash 1   (1 ) (4 )
Free Cash Flow 173   84   74  
 

1 Free Cash Flow is a non-IFRS measure. See “Use of Non-IFRS Measures” and “Reconciliation of IFRS to Non-IFRS Results” for additional information.

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https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190429005261/en/Spotify-Technology-S.A.-Announces-Financial-Results-Quarter

2019-04-29 10:00:00Z
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